Welcome football fans, to my Week 8 Expected Points breakdown. This is where we dive deep into the numbers and analyze player performance based on expected points from the previous week’s games. For those unfamiliar with the concept, expected points are not just projections, but rather a statistical measure that assigns point values to player opportunities based on factors like down, distance, and field position.
Players can either exceed or fall short of their expected fantasy points, which is known as fantasy points over expected (FPOE). This data helps us identify players who are seeing valuable opportunities and could be worth targeting in upcoming weeks.
Now, let’s take a look at some standout performers from last week in terms of expected points. One player who has been catching my eye is Alexander Mattison. The Minnesota running back has seen a significant increase in usage over the past few weeks, going from a backup to almost an every-down back.
Despite some inefficiencies, Mattison has been the RB3 in total expected points over the last three weeks, with 48.9 EP. However, his fantasy points over expected sits at -6.0, making him RB109 in that category. Despite this, Mattison has still managed to put up solid fantasy numbers, with 42.9 PPR points over the three-week stretch.
It’s clear that Mattison’s role in the Vikings’ offense has expanded, with the team relying on him heavily to move the ball down the field. Those who doubted his potential coming into the season are likely regretting that decision now. The Raiders, in particular, have struggled to contain him and are feeling the brunt of his impactful performances. Mattison is proving to be a key player worth keeping an eye on as we head into Week 8.
With plenty of potential breakout stars to target in Week 8, it’s shaping up to be an exciting week in the world of fantasy football. Stay tuned as we continue to monitor player performances and analyze expected points to help guide your lineup decisions.
