The 2024 NFL season is in full swing, with five games in the books. It’s time to assess where each team stands in the league hierarchy. With a month of action to analyze, certain truths are starting to emerge. The Kansas City Chiefs are once again proving their dominance with Patrick Mahomes leading the charge, while the New England Patriots are struggling to find their footing.
While there’s still plenty of football left to be played, we can start to form a clearer picture of the contenders and pretenders. Advanced statistics provide a unique perspective on team performance, offering insights beyond a simple win-loss record. These metrics help us see the full story of how teams are truly performing on the field.
One key metric that sheds light on team performance is Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). This stat, originally developed by Football Outsiders and now housed on FTN Fantasy, measures how much better or worse a team is performing compared to the league average. It takes into account situational factors and opponent quality to provide a comprehensive evaluation.
According to DVOA, “DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10% better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20% worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative. Every year is normalized so the average for that year is 0%.”
As the season progresses, we’ll continue to monitor team performances through the lens of DVOA and other advanced stats. Stay tuned for more insights and analysis as the 2024 NFL season unfolds.
